101 political parties. 37 days. The clock is ticking for Italy's elections.
Nothing says the agony of choice more than 101 parties running in the elections. Do all these parties stand a chance? And will the new 'third pole' disrupt historical bipolarism?
Sunday 14th of August at 16:00 was the deadline for a political party or movement to declare their intention to run in this year’s elections. Over the next couple of days, the list of candidates belonging to each party will be made known as parties scramble to finalise their chosen members. There is a whopping 101 parties who have made public their political symbol, a visual representation of their party and first step toward campaign marketing. Each of these symbols represents a uninominal single district or a plurinominal single district list of candidates.
The Ministry of Interior ultimately rejected 26 of these parties, including ‘Italians with Draghi’ - a party aiming to continue the ex prime minister’s legacy (except Draghi did not know, nor supported its cause). More controversial, however, was Fratelli d’Italia’s flame-shaped symbol submitted by party leader Giorgia Meloni, which was called out for echoing historical far right parties. Interestingly, the first major political party to use this symbol was the Italian Social Movement (MSI), founded in 1946 by ex-fascists and members of the Social Italian Republic, which established itself as the principal far right party for more than 50 years. But Meloni denies the connection, so that’s okay!
So how do Italians vote?
On the 25th of September, Italians are going to vote for a number of candidates who fill seats in the Lower House (Chamber of Deputies) and the Upper House (Senate) of the Parliament. Currently, there are 630 deputies in the Lower House and 315 senators in the Upper house, but due to a 2019 reform, this number will be reduced to 400 and 200 respectively with this election.
Elections run on both a majority system and a proportional system. 37% of the votes will be distributed to one candidate lead per district, which is an area of every Italian region drawn by census. The candidate with the relative majority wins their own district’s seat and thus occupies one of 222 uninominal districts.
The remaining seats, making up 63% of the votes, are distributed proportionally across the rest of the candidates in the parties, with only 2% reserved for Italian voters abroad (that’s me and 5 million other expats).
Sounds like a lot of responsibility for one single ‘X’ crossed on a ballot card.
In essence, when an Italian citizen votes for their lead candidate, they are also voting for the party or coalition that comes with them, and vice versa.
This is why coalitions are formed, namely to share more votes together by backing one single leader.
What does this mean for the 75 parties left in the race? A party must earn at least 3% of the votes to earn a seat in Parliament, or otherwise 10% of votes in a coalition. Safe to say that not all of them are going to make it, at least as far as the first polling results look at the moment…
Initial alliances and the birth of the ‘Third Pole’
The most updated poll dating to the 12th of August shows emerging voting preferences for parties based on a sample of 1.206 citizens.
Once again, time to break down some numbers and introduce the main parties:
The Centre Right Coalition, made up of Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, Forza Italia, and other smaller parties (i.e. Impegno Civico), make up around 48% of potential votes. Their voter support has increased since Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva broke off from the Centre Left Coalition, demonstrating more trust in the Right’s unity.
The Centre Left Coalition is composed of the Democratic Party (PD), Green Left (Verdi) and Italian Left (Sinistra), for around 28% of potential votes. Again, smaller parties trailing behind include +Europe accounting for 2 to 3 percentage points. Here again we saw PD’s support decrease by 0,4% after Renzi’s decision to break from the coalition.
The Five Star Movement (M5S), which gained 1 percentage point since 28 July, run on their own with no political alliances.
Azione and Italia Viva, also known as the Third Pole, are two parties who recently formed their own partnership/agreement have already garnered around 5% of votes.
The third pole: Is it a native of Poland? Is it the lesser known extremity of the Earth?
While initially in the PD, Matteo Renzi and Carlo Calenda split from the party to found their own parties in 2019. While still allied for 3 years in the Centre Left Coalition, Renzi’s (new) Italia Viva and Calenda’s (new) Azione, recently disagreed with the PD’s political alignments and (in their eyes) lack of integrity and therefore they decided to break off from the coalition to form their own agreement. The aim was to curb a need for politics not marked by bipartisanism, and so the liberal-progressive Third Pole was formed ten days ago. This new coalition places itself at the centre of a bipolar system with the intention of picking up where former Prime Minister Mario Draghi left off before resigning (no worries, everyone including Draghi know about this coalition).
“For the first time, today marks the birth of a serious and pragmatic alternative to the left and right bipopulism that has devastated this country and repelled Draghi. I would like to thank Matteo Renzi for his generosity. Together now Italia Viva and Azione for #SeriouslyItaly”.
As polls show, the Centre Right coalition has gained more points since Azione-Italia Viva declared their agreement, perhaps due to an uncertainty in the Centre Left’s cohesion. On the other hand, Italia Viva and Azione are not securing the expected 15% support that Renzi and Calenda were aiming towards just yet, and it remains to be seen just how much progress they can make in the remaining 37 days before the vote.
With so little time left before the elections and so many promises to make, will the Third Pole be able to convince Italians of a Draghi legacy independent of bipartisan bickering? Or will it open a third act to the political theatre?